Card Counting A winning Banker wager pays 19-to-20. As commissions are collected and accounted, this challenging payout causes the game to slow down, losing profit for the house. INTERACTIVE CARD COUNTING TRAINER INSTRUCTIONS The Interactive Card Counting Trainer is a software tool that will teach you how to count cards accurately. No experience is required to use the tool, just the desire to want to learn a mathematically proven technique that will give you the advantage over the casino when you play blackjack.
- Blackjack Card Counting Trainer
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The Interactive Card Counting Trainer is a software tool that will teach you how to count cards accurately. No experience is required to use the tool, just the desire to want to learn a mathematically proven technique that will give you the advantage over the casino when you play blackjack.
There is the misconception that card counters memorize every card that is played. As you will soon see, that is not true. In fact, card counting is a strategy that anyone with average intelligence can learn. And you can get started with the help of this trainer.
WHAT IS CARD COUNTING?
There are many different types of card counting systems. Card counters need to disguise their method of play. Card counters use their count to vary the size of their bets and sometimes their blackjack strategy. Card counters can enjoy a 10% edge over the casino. Unbalanced card counting systems are easier to use than balanced card counting systems.
Card counting is a technique that lets blackjack players know when the advantage shifts in their favor. When this occurs, card counters will increase their bets. When the advantage shifts in favor of the dealer, the counter will make a smaller bet (or no bet at all by not playing). Counters can gain a positive advantage over the casino by varying bets in this manner.
It’s been mathematically proven that high-value cards (i.e., tens, picture cards, and aces) benefit the player more than the dealer, while the low-value cards (i.e., twos through sixes) are more beneficial to the dealer. The remaining cards – sevens, eights, and nines – are essentially neutral. (On average, these cards don’t help the player or dealer very much.)
HOW DOES CARD COUNTING WORK?
After the dealer shuffles the cards, there is an equal number of high and low cards in the deck(s). Depending on which cards are dealt in the early rounds, the ratio of high to low cards in the remaining undealt cards most likely will change.
For example, if more low than high cards were played in the early rounds, then the remaining undealt cards must have a greater concentration of high versus low cards. When the latter occurs, card counters will bet more because they have a better chance of getting a blackjack (with a bonus 3-to-2 payout) and winning a double down.
In addition, if dealers show a low card, they will break more frequently when hitting their hand. If instead the undealt cards contain a higher concentration of low cards, this benefits dealers; by casino rules, dealers must hit their 12 through 16 hands, and the excess concentration of low cards will increase their chances of getting a pat 17 through 21 hand while decreasing their chances of busting.
To know when the undealt cards are richer in high cards (favoring the player) or low cards (favoring the dealer), card counters assign a tag to every card. In the popular Hi-Lo card counting system used in this trainer, the tags of each card are as follows:
| Card | Tag |
|---|---|
2, 3, 4, 5, 6 | +1 |
7, 8, 9 | 0 |
10, J, Q, K, A | -1 |
Card counters must watch every card that is played and arithmetically add the tags for each card. The count after the shuffle always starts at zero. For example, let’s assume the first player had a three, six, and 10 for 19 and stands. The counter would add one (for the three card), add another one (for the six card), and subtract one (for the 10 card). At this point, his or her running count is “plus-one” (i.e., +1 + (+1) + (‒1) = +1).
The counter continues to add the tags of each card in every hand (including the dealer’s hand) until the end of the round. If the running count is positive, depending on how many cards have been played, the counter may have the edge on the next round and he or she will bet more.
The higher the positive count, and the more cards that have been played, the greater his or her edge, and the more the player will bet. If instead the count is negative, the counter knows there’s no edge, and he or she should bet small in the next round. The counter continues this process of counting the tags of each card from one round to the next, adjusting his or her bets depending on whether the running count is positive or negative.
HOW TO USE INTERACTIVE TRAINER
The goal of the trainer is to teach you how to recognize the tags of each card and to train you for mentally adding the tags to keep an accurate running count. The trainer will flash two to six cards on your computer screen. You’ll look at them, add and subtract the tags of the cards, and then carry over your count to the next group of cards that will appear on your screen. At the end of the drill, you’ll input the value of the running count; the trainer will tell you if you’re right or wrong (if the latter, it will show you the actual running count).
TO START THE DRILL:
- Select whether you want to practice with one deck of cards or six decks of cards.
- Using the sliding scale, select the speed (i.e., the number of rounds per minute) with which the cards will appear on the screen for you to count. Moving the diamond on the scale to the right will increase the speed, and moving it to the left will slow it.
- Click on the drop-down menu below “Ask me for the running count every” to select the number of seconds after which you want the drill to stop and ask you for the count. (Choose from 10 seconds to 30 seconds, in five-second increments. There is also the “Never” option: meaning the drill will continue until all the cards in the deck(s) are played.)
- When the drill stops at the point you selected, the trainer will ask you, “What is the Current Running Count?” Type in your running count and click the “Submit” button. (For example, if you think the running is plus-five, type in “+5” and click “Submit.” If it’s minus-six, type in “-6” and then click “Submit.”) After you type in the running count, the trainer will tell you whether you were right or wrong (if the latter, it will show you the actual running count). At the end of the drill, it will also compute your counting accuracy. (Your goal is 100% accuracy.)
- At any point during the drill, you can click the “Pause” button to stop the trainer. (This will give you more time if you need it to count the cards. Clicking on the “Pause” button again will restart the trainer.)
TIPS FOR USING THE TRAINER
- When you first begin to practice card counting, use the “Single Deck” mode, set the “Speed” to “Slow,” and select 10 or 15 seconds as the amount of time you’ll have to stop the drill and key in your count. Your first goal is to get a consistently accurate running count (i.e., speed isn’t the first objective).
- When you can achieve 100% accuracy in your count at the slow speed, gradually increase the speed of the drill. Don’t be surprised if you make mistakes in your count once you increase the speed with which the cards will appear and disappear on your computer screen. After consistently achieving 100% accuracy at a slightly higher speed level, keep incrementally increasing the speed and practicing until you again achieve 100% accuracy. Repeat this process until you can maintain 100% accuracy in your count at the fastest speed on the slide. (You have the option to practice card counting using the six-deck mode as well, which you should do if you are planning to play and count in a six-deck game.)
- As your accuracy improves, begin to cancel a high card (minus-one) with a low card (plus-one) in each round so that only the remaining cards are counted and added to your running count. (This will increase your speed since you don’t have to “count” every high and low card.)
MORE HELP
For more details on card counting – including the history of card counting, how to bet based on the count, how to deviate from the basic playing strategy based on the count, how to compute the true count in multiple-deck games, how to disguise your card-counting skills, and much more – consult the “Ultimate Guide to Blackjack.”
Up until '7 Up Baccarat' (7UB), there has not been a variant of baccarat that is substantially vulnerable to card counting. While baccarat side bets can be a lucrative opportunity, the best an AP can do card counting standard baccarat is an earning rate of about 87 cents-per-shoe with a $1000 maximum bet (see this post). What makes 7UB baccarat different is the unique rule that the Player starting hand always has a seven as its first card. It follows that A’s and 2’s are premium cards for the player side, as they give the Player a natural. Likewise, 8’s and 9’s are premium cards for the Banker hand.
The complete rules for 7UB can be found in this document: Baccarat_7_Up. The main rule changes from standard baccarat are easy enough to describe:
- The first card for the Player hand is a 7. This is not a “dealt” card; rather it is printed on the layout so that this card does not deplete the shoe in any way.
- The remainder of the cards needed for the hand are dealt from the shoe.
- The hand is completed with the usual baccarat drawing rules.
- The higher baccarat total wins, or in the case of a tie, both the player bet and Banker bet are a push.
The main difference between standard baccarat and 7UB comes in the payouts. Winning wagers made on the Player bet are paid as follows:
- Player win, total not 7, pays 1-to-1.
- Player win, total equal to 7, pays 1-to-2.
Winning wagers on the Banker bet are paid as follows:
- Banker win, total not 7, pays 1-to-1.
- Banker win, total equal to 7, pays 9-to-5.
Here is the complete combinatorial analysis for the eight-deck game:
In particular:
- The house edge for wagering on the Player hand is 2.593%.
- The house edge for wagering on the Banker hand is 2.579%.
These off-the-top edges are significantly higher than the edges for ordinary baccarat. If not for the novelty of the game, it is difficult to find a reason that 7UB would interest a seasoned player.
The next step in considering advantage play is to compute the effect of removal (EOR) for each card for both the Player and Banker wagers. Based on these EORs, card counting systems can then be developed and tested. As it turns out, the Banker wager is significantly more countable than the Player wager, so I will present the Banker wager in full first.
The following table gives the EORs for the Banker bet. Alongside the EORs, I give an optimal system which uses decimal values for the card counting system. The optimal system is not intended to be used in practice. It is used as a reference system to gauge the strength of any practical system. The last column gives a practical system (system #1) that can be used by an ordinary card counter.
For convenience, here are the card counting tags for these two systems:
- Optimal system: (1.71, 2.00, -0.62, -0.69, -0.89, -1.52, -1.47, -1.24, 0.90)
- System #1: (2, 2, 0, 0, -1, -1, -2, -2, -2, 1)
The betting efficiency of System #1 is 0.967, which means it should perform very well compared to the optimal system, as we will see. The next step is to run a simulation of each. I first consider the optimal system.
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The following table gives the results of a simulation of one hundred million (100,000,000) eight-deck shoes of 7UB, using the optimal system to count the Banker bet. It is assumed that the AP will only place a Banker wager when the count exceeds the trigger count, and that the AP makes no other wagers. I assume the usual cut-card placement at 14 cards, together with the usual rule for burning initial cards.
The optimal system allows the AP to win 0.714 units per shoe. He has the edge on 23.045% of his hands, with an average edge of 2.982%.
Next I consider system #1. The following table gives the results of a simulation of one hundred million (100,000,000) eight-deck shoes of 7UB using system #1 to count the Banker bet:
System #1 allows the AP to win 0.681 units per shoe. He has the edge on 19.035% of his hands, with an average edge of 3.444%. An AP who is betting $100 whenever the count is +3 or higher, and makes no other wagers, will earn about $68.10 per shoe. System #1 returns over 95% of the value that can be obtained using the optimal system.
What makes this opportunity significant is that there are usually very high limits on the wagers for baccarat. Unlike blackjack, where a card counting AP may struggle to stay under the radar with wagers of $500 or more, in baccarat there is little or no game protection for ordinary card counting. Thus, an AP may be able to wager $10,000 or more per hand with little scrutiny. It follows that card counting 7UB is an extreme vulnerability in terms of its potential dollar-value for the AP. It is therefore extremely urgent to find a reasonable safeguard.
Reducing the penetration through the shuffle does not entirely succeed. The following table gives the win rates for various cut-card depths. Each line is based on a simulation of twenty million (20,000,000) eight-deck shoes:
The win-rate does not go down very quickly with increased cut card depth. Reducing the win-rate from card counting by 50% requires a cut card placement of more than one deck. But even with a 50% earning reduction, the card counter still has a strong opportunity given the size of wagers he can place. A minimum of two decks would need to be cut off to mitigate the card counting risk.
Moving on to the Player side, the following table gives the EORs for the Player bet. Alongside the EORs, I give an optimal system which uses decimal values for the card counting system. This is followed by a practical system that can be used by an ordinary card counter.
For convenience, here are the card counting tags for these two systems:
- Optimal system: (-2.57, -3.00, 0.69, 0.74, 0.99, 1.08, 1.29, 1.77, 1.31, -0.58)
- System #1: (-3, -3, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 2, 1, 0)
The betting efficiency of System #1 here is 0.962, which again is very strong.
The following table gives the results of a simulation of one hundred million (100,000,000) eight-deck shoes of 7UB, using the optimal system to count the Player bet. It is assumed that the AP will only place a player wager when the count exceeds the trigger count, and make no other wagers.
The AP can earn 0.524 units per shoe against the player bet using the optimal system.
Here are the results of a simulation of one hundred million (100,000,000) eight-deck shoes of 7UP, using system #1 to count the Player bet:
System #1 allows the AP to win 0.469 units per shoe. He has the edge on 14.224% of his hands, with an average edge of 3.173%. An AP who is betting $100 whenever the count is +3 or higher, and makes no other wagers, will earn about $46.90 per shoe. System #1 returns just over 89% of the value that can be obtained using the optimal system. It follows that playing against the Player bet is both less efficient and less profitable than playing against the Banker bet. For this reason, it is unlikely that a solo counter would target the Player side.
However, there is a unique team opportunity here. If two (or more) APs are playing as a team, then one AP can count the Player bet and the other can count the Banker bet. They can signal each other for when to make their respective wagers. It follows that this team can earn 0.681 + 0.469 = 1.150 units per shoe per team member. If this team is well-funded (and many are), and each team member wagers $10,000 whenever there is an edge, then each team member will earn $11,500 per shoe. Two card counters can earn $23,000 per shoe. If the cut card is placed at one deck, this team can still earn over $12,000 per shoe. It follows that 7UB is untenable if dealt from a shoe with a cut card that is not deeply placed.
I am aware of one location that 7UB is currently offered where it is dealt from a continuous shuffler. This is highly unusual for baccarat and may indicate that this casino was already hit by card counters.
There is an additional side bet that can be offered with 7UB called “Super 7’s.” The unique rule of 7UB is that the Player hand always starts with the Player having a 7. The Super 7’s side bet is paid based on the additional number of 7s that are dealt in the hand.
Here is the pay table for the Super 7’s side bet:
- Any six 7’s pays 777-to-1.
- Any five 7’s pays 77-to-1.
- Any four 7’s pays 17 to 1.
- Any three 7’s pays 7-to-1.
- Any two 7’s pays 2-to-1
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If you read this post on the “Lucky Nines” baccarat side bet, you will understand that the Super 7’s side bet is crushable. A team of three counters (with the third counter keeping track of the Super 7's side bet), will absolutely destroy this congregation of opportunities.
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The following are my recommendations for safeguarding 7UB:
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- Cut at least two decks off of the shoe.
- Deal 7UB from a continuous shuffle machine.
- The Super 7’s side bet should never be offered if 7UB is dealt from a shoe.